Research

Job Market Paper

Engineering Germany’s Industrial Success

Engineering Societies, Patents, and the 19th-Century Catch-Up

Few economies have ever reached the global technological frontier, and fewer still have stayed there; existing work identifies formal inputs to that transition, but the organisational layer through which they combine into innovative effort has received less attention. Germany’s late-19th-century catch-up in chemistry, electrical machinery, and precision instruments was coordinated in part by the German Engineering Society, which built a national network of local chapters organising practical engineering knowledge through monthly meetings, factory visits, and a weekly technical journal. Exploiting the staggered founding of 22 chapters over 1877–1918 in a Callaway–Sant’Anna design on the Streb–Baten high-value patent corpus, I estimate that chapter founding raises annual patenting by roughly four percent, with flat pre-trends and a null outside the Society’s technical scope. The response operates through strengthening existing capacity and through practical owner-engineers rather than credentialed graduates, identifying the professional organisation of practical knowledge as a channel for innovation capacity that complements formal education and patent rights.

Work in Progress

Drained Natural Assets

Pricing the Ecosystem Services of U.S. Peatlands

with Nils Lieber

We construct the first parcel-scale marginal abatement cost curve for U.S. peatland conservation, overlaying a new 30 m USDA Forest Service peatland flux raster on the Nolte (2020) land-value raster and the Taylor and Druckenmiller (2022) wetland flood-mitigation raster. At a 20-year contract horizon and 4 percent discount rate, 80 percent of U.S. peatland is conservable at or below $50/tCO2 and 47 percent at or below $25/tCO2, with the $50 enrollment costing roughly $17B in present value while securing about 28 MtCO2 per year of avoided emissions and displacing less than two percent of U.S. corn output. Within-county dispersion in abatement cost is comparable to across-county dispersion, identifying spatial targeting rather than a uniform per-hectare payment as the binding policy lever. Once flood benefits are netted out, more than 140,000 ha clear the welfare threshold at a zero carbon price.

Agricultural Roots of Industrial Success

How German Viticulture Shaped “Hidden Champions”

This paper investigates the long-term contribution of viticulture to regional growth in Germany, focusing on Hidden Champions—publicly unknown yet globally leading firms in niche markets—that form the foundation of Germany’s export-oriented, industrial-driven success. Using municipality-level data, I employ the Huglin index, a climate-based instrumental variable for wine cultivation, to identify the effect of viticulture on the presence of Hidden Champions. The presence of viticulture within a municipality increases the number of Hidden Champions by 31 percent. Unlike other agricultural crops, wine cultivation demands a broader and more technically diverse skill set, which contributed to the emergence of technically oriented firms that ultimately evolved into Hidden Champions.